U.S. Military is now poised for a 2 weeks surgical strikes inside Iran. The American public and the Obama campaign better be ready because with the pending bill on Iranian Naval Blockade in the congress, engagement is now inevitable. And it'll occur at the earliest September 5 and no later than October 13, 2008. The confrontation will last for 2 weeks in which the US will completely destroy Iranian nuclear capability and also disable the overall Iranian military establishment to the point that they couldn't pose a reasonable threat to little Jordan or Kuwait.
* Here are my reasons for predicting that military confrontation is by now inevitable:
* GW Bush will use his military capital to fight a war that would be swift and victorious; thus redeeming his image from the Iraqi debacle.
* Iran as an Islamic Republic will not cower to the blockade and thus would resist.
* The Iranian government sees resisting US as a service to Allah and thus a religious obligation. They'll even fire the first shot, if US tries to impose the Congress-authorized blockade; therefore predicating the 2 weeks bombardment.
Now, let's move and make some more prediction before giving Obama some advice (I'm a pragmatic Obamacan and for the records, I like Gen. Clark and also believe that flying a plane does not qualify one to be president). So here are my money predictions:
* First oil will spike after the initial confrontation but will plummet below $100 after the US Navy has secured the Strait of Hormuz.
* The action will resemble the bombardment of Belgrade but will not involve any major ground troop deployment inside Iran.
* The whole Arab World will condemn the military action but nothing further than that.
Now, what is my advice to Obama campaign on this? Be ready and know that it's coming and also get your talking points ready since you've moved to the center now.
What are Obama's options on this inevitable bombardment of Iran?
* Get his General together and start condemning Iran's nuclear pursuit in the strongest terms. So long as he is unequivocal in his condemnation, he does not need to support or oppose military actions against Iran; he should keep his mouth shut and just keep condemning Iranian nuclear pursuit.
* Declare that if this is the last resort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities, then so be it.
* Recommend that the action be swift and quick with no ground troop deployment or military occupation.
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